2024 Game Spending Could Drop By 10% Unless More Overachievers Like Palworld Release

In an interview with GamesIndustry, the prominent Circana analyst Mat Piscatella clarified that game spending can potentially drop by 10% this year. The upcoming months are looking quite unpredictable since there is a lot of uncertainty when the sales data or forecasts are analyzed for the year. Mat mentions that there is uncertainty about games, about the hardware, and nothing seems to be set in stone. 

Right now my most optimistic outlook is down about 2%. If you start looking a little bit on the more pessimistic side, you’re looking at down about 10%. If things really go sideways, you’re looking at a little bit more,” says Mat Piscatella.

Mat mentions that the uncertainty levels have never been this unpredictable throughout his career since 2005. The mid-gen console refresh is also expected to not make a significant difference in the grand scheme of things. Additionally, the retail side of the business has continued to decline. However, there is one outlier that could potentially save the year. 

Overachievers Like Helldivers 2 And Palworld May Just Save The Industry

The analyst discusses that high-flyers like Palworld and Helldivers 2 have caused a significant shift in the unpredictable industry. They may have saved game spending from plummeting to even greater numbers. However, even their strength alone is insufficient to offset the results of last year. Mat thinks that another overachiever needs to step into the market to balance out the sales figures.

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The next year is expected to see a boost in the development cycle if many factors fall into place. As per Mat, the release of GTA 6 is the most “important thing to ever release in the industry,” as it will cause a renewed interest in game development.