Next-Gen Consoles Would Face A 38% Drop In Sales If Priced At $1,000, Says Analyst

A $1000 Console Could Cost The Industry Billions

A new Ampere Analysis report warns that if Sony and Microsoft launch “conventionally designed, incrementally improved next-generation consoles” in 2028 priced at $1,000, combined sales of the PS6 and Xbox Project Helix could be up to 38% lower over their first five years than PS5 and Xbox Series X|S managed over the same stretch. Based on current estimates of roughly 93.5 million PS5s and 35 million Xbox Series consoles sold, a generation on track for something like 140 to 160 million combined units could instead land closer to 87 to 99 million.

The knock-on effect goes beyond hardware. Ampere estimates that by 2031, the combined console games and services market across PlayStation and Xbox would be $3.4 billion, or roughly 12%, smaller than it would be if both consoles launched at $700 instead. Fewer console owners means a smaller addressable audience for game sales, subscriptions, and other spending tied to the platforms.

Why $1,000 Is Suddenly On The Table

Rising production costs are the driving force behind the warning. Memory and storage prices have climbed sharply, partly due to AI infrastructure competing for the same chip manufacturing capacity that consoles depend on, squeezing the margins that have traditionally let Sony and Microsoft subsidize hardware and sell consoles near or below cost. This even compelled Sony to buy out enough RAM for PS5 for FY26.

That pressure is already visible: the PS5 Pro launched at $700 and has since crept toward $900 in some markets, making a four-figure next-gen console feel less like a worst-case scenario and more like a plausible outcome if nothing changes.

Ampere’s own analyst, Piers Harding-Rolls, framed the challenge as one of design philosophy rather than just pricing.

Rather than focusing primarily on incremental improvements in processing and graphical performance, the next console cycle could see greater emphasis on new form factors, use cases and commercial models that give consumers a compelling reason to upgrade,” he wrote.

Four Ways Out Of A $1,000 Console

The report lays out four strategic paths Sony and Microsoft could take to avoid that outcome.

• The first is delaying next-gen hardware beyond 2028 entirely, buying time for component costs to ease before committing to a launch price.
• The second keeps the 2028 window but leans harder on hardware subsidies, new monetization models, more aggressive digital sales strategies, and optimized retail channels to hold pricing down despite higher costs.
• The third pushes for a more substantial hardware rethink, prioritizing new form factors and use cases over pure graphical horsepower, so the value proposition isn’t just “faster than last time.”
• The fourth simply aims to offer a clearly differentiated next-gen experience while keeping launch pricing meaningfully under $1,000, whatever specific approach gets it there.

None of this locks in an actual PS6 or Xbox Helix price. Sony has repeatedly said it hasn’t settled on pricing or a launch date, with CEO Hiroki Totoki confirming as recently as this week that a PS6 release date and price both remain undecided, citing the same rising memory costs Ampere’s report points to.

Xbox’s own Project Helix, described as a hybrid console-PC device, represents enough of a form-factor departure from past Xbox hardware that it could end up following Ampere’s third path regardless of how the pricing conversation shakes out. For now, $1,000 remains a modeled risk rather than a confirmed number, but it’s a risk both companies will have to actively design around rather than one that simply resolves itself.