Story Highlights
- It seems that a possible decline in the live-service genre is imminent, as claimed by an analyst in year-end predictions.
- The analyst predicts that live-service titles will not continue to dominate the industry and saturate the market.
- Many studios have already begun to pivot away from the genre. We suggest taking the forecast with a grain of salt.
The live-service genre has continued to grow in the gaming industry since its inception. Now, as reported by GamesIndustry, an analyst has predicted that its growth may finally be halted for good this year. As elaborated by the popular Newzoo critic Tom Wijman, the dominion of the controversial genre will stop growing this year. It will lead to a decline in market saturation as established titles in the niche continue to succeed.
Live services will continue to be massively successful and dominate top played and grossing charts, undoubtedly, but not every studio will want to develop a live service game anymore. Developers and publishers will pivot back to premium game development,” predicts the analyst.
The gaming studios have begun to realize that it is becoming increasingly difficult to penetrate the live service market as a new title. The devs do not just have to pour millions into a game’s development, but maintaining it for the subsequent years with regular seasons and updates exhausts a giant influx of resources. As a result, publishers like Sony PlayStation have already started to pivot back towards premium game development.
Oversaturation in the PC and console markets is evident, with a handful of titles monopolizing playtime; 60% of playtime is eaten up by 19 games and 75% by the top 33 by playtime.”
The analyst has also predicted the genre will not reach the same engagement peaks it used to a few years ago, except for a few domineering games. The studios have begun adapting to ensure a steady flow of profits.
We are familiar that many Sony studios were busy developing 12 live service entries behind the scenes, as per the initiative launched by Jim Ryan. Since his announced departure, the number of live-service titles has been halved, and only a couple are in development now. Naughty Dog also refused to become a live-service studio by canceling the multiplayer The Last of Us spin-off to focus on single-player games.
Similarly, Sega canceled its in-development live-service game Project Hyenas after recognizing that it could not support it post-launch. The publisher is now focused on reviving its old IPs instead.
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The recent live service age has been among the most infamous gamers have seen because of its supposed controversial and predatory mechanics. While a slew of titles has been successful in the niche —like Fortnite and the others that followed suit— countless others have failed to leave enough of a presence and eventually had their servers ceased. As per the analyst, we can expect a shift away from the genre in the near future.
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